About two-thirds of the world´s fleet capacity would score between A and C on its Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII), according to data published by Clarksons in its most recent weekly report.
In 2020, the IMO agreed on a “near-term” global decarbonization framework that included specific technical efficiency standards for each ship segment (Energy Efficiency of Existing Ships Index, EEXI) and an annual efficiency improvement program each time. more strict. , depending on the operating intensity of CO2 (Carbon Intensity Indicator, CII). The objective was to drive operational and investment behavior towards lower emissions from the maritime sector.
Clarksons analysts once calculated the initial classifications that each ship would obtain with respect to its carbon intensity indicator, CII (A-E) at the time of its entry into force, that is, in 2023. Using proprietary data on the characteristics of vessels and assuming "typical" trading patterns, predicted that a third of the tonnage could be D or E.
Recently, they have revised these analyzes taking into account the actual distance traveled, navigation time and speed of each vessel, which influences fuel consumption. The estimates obtained with data from the first half of 2023 coincide with Clarksons´ previous forecasts: two-thirds of the tonnage would be classified as A, B or C and a third as D or E.
However, the data has shown notable variations at the extremes of the spectrum, recording a forecast of 17% of global tonnage classified A compared to 12% in the initial analysis; and 13% graded E compared to 5%. For Clarksons, this bias is not surprising, given that its initial analysis assumed the same trading pattern for each vessel type and, in reality, there is a much broader spectrum. According to the report, “does this fact underscore the unfair impact? of trading patterns in the CII classification.
Clarksons initially estimated that vessel speeds would trend downward as vessels took steps to maintain or improve their CII classifications. However, its operational speed data in 2023 shows mixed results: container ships and bulk carriers have decreased their speed, while some oil tankers have slightly increased their speed. In all cases, the average velocity is lower than that recorded in the peaks and troughs of previous equivalent market cycles.
Investments in fleet are also disparate. While the average age of the fleet continues to increase, the proportion of "green" vessels is now 31%; 45% of new construction orders will be able to use alternative fuels and the incorporation of environmentally friendly technologies in operational vessels is increasing, in terms of tonnage.
For Clarksons, there is no shortage of reasons to worry shipowners and charterers. Firstly, the IMO agreement, in July, for the implementation of a revised emissions strategy with more ambitious long-term objectives. In addition, maritime transport is planned to be included in the European emissions trading system, EU ETS, in 2024.
In general terms, the analyst maintains his previous forecasts and assures that "transitory pressures derived from the increase in emissions regulations will probably limit fleet supply at some point," and warned that the outlook could be "confusing."
News and image obtained: "Actualidad Marítima y Portuaria"
The vessel, which will be the first of its kind to be propelled with this fuel, will be delivered in 2026.