Various consulting firms specializing in maritime transport have projected that traffic through the Suez Canal will practically return to pre-crisis levels in the first few months of 2027. The most optimistic forecast comes from Linerlytica, which predicts a “large-scale” return to pre-Red Sea crisis volumes—which were disrupted by the Houthi threat—in the first quarter of the year, while Drewry forecasts that 80% of traffic will have recovered by February of next year.
According to Linerlytica, the large-scale return will occur when Ocean Network Express (ONE) and Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM) resume their main traffic through the Suez Canal, with Evergreen, Yang Ming, and Zim expected to follow suit.
For now, Linerlytica notes that each of the four major alliances has already begun offering regular services between Asia and Europe via the waterway, with the Premier Alliance (ONE, HMM, and Yang Ming), Gemini Cooperation (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd), Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM, Cosco, Evergreen, and OOCL), and MSC—which is not part of any alliance but collaborates with other carriers—being the latest to add services.
Drewry notes that shipping companies “are returning to Suez sooner than expected,” and has adjusted its initial forecasts based on the current situation, in which the resumption of traffic is proceeding “gradually.” In this regard, according to its estimates, the British consulting firm anticipates that by February 2027, 80% of the volumes seen before the detours via the Cape of Good Hope will have been recovered. “Traffic will remain at that level for the remainder of the forecast horizon, as shipping lines will want to maintain flexibility to strengthen their resilience,” Drewry predicts.
Data from the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) confirms the trend observed by Drewry. In recent weeks, traffic through the Suez Canal has reportedly already recovered 50% of the volumes seen before the Gaza war. Specifically, in the first two weeks of October, the weekly capacity of container ships transiting the Suez Canal averaged 753,000 TEUs, according to Clarkson Research, compared to the 1.4 million TEUs recorded during the same period in 2023.
Drewry reported a week ago that ships were returning to the Suez Canal because “the economic and operational value of choosing a shorter route has reached a level high enough that they are willing to return.” This means that shipping companies have assessed “whether the annual value of regaining vessel capacity, reducing transit times, improving the economic efficiency of services, and strengthening their competitive position outweighs the expected cost of a safety-related disruption.”
News and image obtained: "Diario El Canal"
